{
 "census_as_ledgered": {
  "N": 86,
  "win": 26,
  "null": 38,
  "loss": 22,
  "by_ctype": {
   "carried_self": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "carried_w2s": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 7,
    "loss": 5
   },
   "layer_vs_bare": {
    "win": 15,
    "null": 4,
    "loss": 2
   },
   "layer_vs_prior": {
    "win": 6,
    "null": 3,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "layer_vs_rival": {
    "win": 5,
    "null": 22,
    "loss": 13
   },
   "system_vs_single": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "trained_vs_frontier": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 0,
    "loss": 2
   }
  }
 },
 "census_corrected": {
  "N": 78,
  "win": 19,
  "null": 41,
  "loss": 18,
  "by_ctype": {
   "carried_self": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "carried_w2s": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 8,
    "loss": 4
   },
   "layer_vs_bare": {
    "win": 12,
    "null": 5,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "layer_vs_prior": {
    "win": 6,
    "null": 3,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "layer_vs_rival": {
    "win": 1,
    "null": 23,
    "loss": 12
   },
   "system_vs_single": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "trained_vs_frontier": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 0,
    "loss": 2
   }
  }
 },
 "census_corrected_minus_rival_advantage_losses": {
  "N": 74,
  "win": 19,
  "null": 41,
  "loss": 14,
  "by_ctype": {
   "carried_self": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "carried_w2s": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 8,
    "loss": 4
   },
   "layer_vs_bare": {
    "win": 12,
    "null": 5,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "layer_vs_prior": {
    "win": 6,
    "null": 3,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "layer_vs_rival": {
    "win": 1,
    "null": 23,
    "loss": 8
   },
   "system_vs_single": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "trained_vs_frontier": {
    "win": 0,
    "null": 0,
    "loss": 2
   }
  }
 },
 "headroom": [
  {
   "rows": "all 15 (as published)",
   "n": 15,
   "k": 0.539,
   "k_ci": [
    0.427,
    0.675
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.641,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.49,
    0.865
   ],
   "b": 1.59,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.05,
    3.85
   ],
   "const_lift": 5.71,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 107.1,
    "bias": 96.8,
    "head": 77.2,
    "headbias": 75.6
   },
   "tau_head": 0.98
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop carried-from-weaker rows L010 L011 L012 L016",
   "n": 11,
   "k": 0.563,
   "k_ci": [
    0.443,
    0.713
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.789,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.498,
    1.08
   ],
   "b": 3.38,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.2,
    6.95
   ],
   "const_lift": 7.25,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 81.8,
    "bias": 68.1,
    "head": 55.5,
    "headbias": 55.0
   },
   "tau_head": 1.21
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop L124 (subset of L126)",
   "n": 14,
   "k": 0.514,
   "k_ci": [
    0.4,
    0.655
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.618,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.463,
    0.835
   ],
   "b": 1.52,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.1,
    3.65
   ],
   "const_lift": 5.2,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 98.7,
    "bias": 90.1,
    "head": 72.0,
    "headbias": 70.6
   },
   "tau_head": 0.85
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop L057 (Haiku->Opus mid-task handoff)",
   "n": 14,
   "k": 0.537,
   "k_ci": [
    0.422,
    0.677
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.641,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.485,
    0.88
   ],
   "b": 1.59,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.1,
    3.95
   ],
   "const_lift": 5.41,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 98.2,
    "bias": 89.3,
    "head": 71.5,
    "headbias": 70.0
   },
   "tau_head": 0.98
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop L099 (unaudited) and L166 (post hoc)",
   "n": 13,
   "k": 0.499,
   "k_ci": [
    0.383,
    0.643
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.608,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.448,
    0.825
   ],
   "b": 1.51,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.1,
    3.6
   ],
   "const_lift": 4.78,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 90.1,
    "bias": 82.9,
    "head": 65.9,
    "headbias": 64.4
   },
   "tau_head": 0.78
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop L174 (mixed-model stream)",
   "n": 14,
   "k": 0.568,
   "k_ci": [
    0.44,
    0.718
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.674,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.508,
    0.93
   ],
   "b": 1.69,
   "b_ci": [
    -0.1,
    4.2
   ],
   "const_lift": 5.64,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 100.4,
    "bias": 91.9,
    "head": 73.3,
    "headbias": 71.8
   },
   "tau_head": 1.15
  },
  {
   "rows": "drop all of the above (R2 combined)",
   "n": 6,
   "k": 0.503,
   "k_ci": [
    0.338,
    0.748
   ],
   "k_headbias": 0.792,
   "k_headbias_ci": [
    0.338,
    1.268
   ],
   "b": 3.44,
   "b_ci": [
    -1.95,
    8.1
   ],
   "const_lift": 5.02,
   "aic": {
    "zero": 41.4,
    "bias": 36.5,
    "head": 30.1,
    "headbias": 30.4
   },
   "tau_head": 1.01
  }
 ],
 "strength_gap": {
  "rule": "A row counts as a carried-knowledge case only if (i) the reader is given knowledge distilled from a source model's past episodes (a store, playbook, rules, recipes, minted checks or a compiled digest), not the in-progress work product of the current task; (ii) it is compared with the same reader without that knowledge; (iii) the reading is not WITHDRAWN or DO-NOT-USE in the program's audits; corrected values replace ledger values. Applied identically to both directions.",
  "excluded": [
   {
    "id": "L098",
    "reason": "(iii) wave-2 lineage layer over tickets 41-50: DO-NOT-USE (audit of the wave-1/2 handover readings)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L104",
    "reason": "(i) guard: hard checks from the ticket's own examples, no distilled knowledge"
   },
   {
    "id": "L105",
    "reason": "(i) commit: commits the deployed tree after every ticket, no distilled knowledge"
   },
   {
    "id": "L049",
    "reason": "(i) mid-task handoff of the current task (DOWN, ours - Opus 4.8 alone)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L054",
    "reason": "(i) mid-task handoff of the current task (a5 - Opus 4.8 alone)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L051",
    "reason": "(i) mid-task handoff of the current task (Opus -> Haiku)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L059",
    "reason": "(i) kernel succession chain: the successor continues the predecessor's work product"
   },
   {
    "id": "L057",
    "reason": "(i) mid-task handoff of the current task (Haiku -> Opus 5.5, vs fresh)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L056",
    "reason": "(i) mid-task handoff of the current task (Haiku -> Opus 5.5, vs transcript)"
   }
  ],
  "included": [
   {
    "id": "L001",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "opus-5.5",
    "gap": -2,
    "est": 7.0,
    "z": 3.25,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": 1.0,
    "source": "AppWorld: Opus 5.5-compiled AppWorld store read by Haiku",
    "contrast": "Haiku+Opus-compiled store - Haiku bare",
    "correction": "all repeats TC 74.74 vs 67.75 (AppWorld inheritance audit)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L002",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "opus-5.5",
    "gap": -2,
    "est": 5.16,
    "z": 1.67,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": 0.0,
    "source": "AppWorld: Opus 5.5-compiled AppWorld store read by Haiku",
    "contrast": "Haiku+Opus-compiled store - Haiku bare",
    "correction": "all repeats TN 86.11 vs 80.95 (AppWorld inheritance audit)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L017",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": -1,
    "est": 6.6667,
    "z": 0.84,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store read by Haiku",
    "contrast": "living - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L015",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": -1,
    "est": -9.0,
    "z": -1.88,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store read by Haiku",
    "contrast": "living - bare (discordant 7:16)",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L026",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": -1,
    "est": 0.094,
    "z": null,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store read by Haiku",
    "contrast": "inherited - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L103",
    "reader": "qwen",
    "source_model": "opus-5.5",
    "gap": -2,
    "est": 0.476,
    "z": 3.74,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": 1.0,
    "source": "Long-horizon: full_v2 capital minted by Opus 5.5",
    "contrast": "full_v2 - bare",
    "correction": "12:12Z t-interval, n=6, sign-flip p=0.031 (audit recomputation)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L111",
    "reader": "opus-4.8",
    "source_model": "opus-5.5",
    "gap": -1,
    "est": 0.0,
    "z": null,
    "sign": 0,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-horizon: full_v2 capital minted by Opus 5.5",
    "contrast": "v2/guard/commit - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L018",
    "reader": "opus-4.8",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 0,
    "est": -6.6667,
    "z": -1.35,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "self (same model)",
    "contrast": "living - bare (author)",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L058",
    "reader": "haiku",
    "source_model": "haiku",
    "gap": 0,
    "est": -17.9,
    "z": -3.64,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": true,
    "source": "self (same model)",
    "contrast": "online store - fresh",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L182",
    "reader": "opus-4.8",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 0,
    "est": 0.21,
    "z": null,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "self (same model)",
    "contrast": "store - none (dlog speedup)",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L191",
    "reader": "opus-4.8",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 0,
    "est": 0.185,
    "z": null,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "self (same model)",
    "contrast": "store arms - bare (min)",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L084",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-5.5",
    "gap": 0,
    "est": 0.02,
    "z": 1.12,
    "sign": 1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "self (same model)",
    "contrast": "record - cold",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L014",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.54,
    "z": -1.56,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": 0.0,
    "source": "Long-running harness (horizon run): Opus 4.8 kernel store, offline",
    "contrast": "living - bare",
    "correction": "offline H12 vs bare k=10 (audit correction)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L016",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -1.6667,
    "z": -0.39,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store, AppWorld fresh tasks",
    "contrast": "living - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L183",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.03,
    "z": null,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "store - none (dlog speedup)",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L184",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.223,
    "z": -2.0,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": 1.0,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "show-all - bare",
    "correction": "reference-time normalised (audit correction)"
   },
   {
    "id": "L185",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.483,
    "z": -2.06,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": true,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "provenance rule - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L186",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.266,
    "z": -2.58,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": true,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "trained organ - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L187",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.347,
    "z": -1.1,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "Opus reading randomised tables - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L188",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -0.359,
    "z": -2.06,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": true,
    "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
    "contrast": "Opus + digest - bare",
    "correction": ""
   },
   {
    "id": "L028",
    "reader": "opus-5.5",
    "source_model": "opus-4.8",
    "gap": 1,
    "est": -3.0,
    "z": -1.34,
    "sign": -1,
    "sig": false,
    "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store, AppWorld fresh tasks",
    "contrast": "gate harm:help 4:1",
    "correction": ""
   }
  ],
  "downhill": {
   "rows": 7,
   "nonzero": 6,
   "positive": 5,
   "negative": 1,
   "zero": 1,
   "significant_positive": 2,
   "significant_negative": 0,
   "sources": [
    "AppWorld: Opus 5.5-compiled AppWorld store read by Haiku",
    "Long-horizon: full_v2 capital minted by Opus 5.5",
    "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store read by Haiku"
   ]
  },
  "same_model": {
   "rows": 5,
   "nonzero": 5,
   "positive": 3,
   "negative": 2,
   "zero": 0,
   "significant_positive": 0,
   "significant_negative": 1,
   "sources": [
    "self (same model)"
   ]
  },
  "uphill": {
   "rows": 9,
   "nonzero": 9,
   "positive": 0,
   "negative": 9,
   "zero": 0,
   "significant_positive": 0,
   "significant_negative": 4,
   "sources": [
    "Long-running harness (horizon run): Opus 4.8 kernel store, offline",
    "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store, AppWorld fresh tasks",
    "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)"
   ]
  },
  "row_spearman": {
   "rho": -0.764,
   "nominal_p": 5.45780503743902e-05,
   "n": 21
  },
  "source_level": {
   "table": [
    {
     "source": "AppWorld: Opus 5.5-compiled AppWorld store read by Haiku",
     "side": "down",
     "net_sign": 1,
     "any_sig": true,
     "members": [
      "L001",
      "L002"
     ]
    },
    {
     "source": "Long-horizon: full_v2 capital minted by Opus 5.5",
     "side": "down",
     "net_sign": 1,
     "any_sig": true,
     "members": [
      "L103",
      "L111"
     ]
    },
    {
     "source": "Long-running harness (horizon run): Opus 4.8 kernel store, offline",
     "side": "up",
     "net_sign": -1,
     "any_sig": false,
     "members": [
      "L014"
     ]
    },
    {
     "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store read by Haiku",
     "side": "down",
     "net_sign": 1,
     "any_sig": false,
     "members": [
      "L017",
      "L015",
      "L026"
     ]
    },
    {
     "source": "Long-running harness: Opus 4.8-built living store, AppWorld fresh tasks",
     "side": "up",
     "net_sign": -1,
     "any_sig": false,
     "members": [
      "L016",
      "L028"
     ]
    },
    {
     "source": "Training: Opus 4.8 kernel store, served vs not (O-K arms and item-exposure run)",
     "side": "up",
     "net_sign": -1,
     "any_sig": true,
     "members": [
      "L183",
      "L184",
      "L185",
      "L186",
      "L187",
      "L188"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "downhill_helped": "3 of 3",
   "uphill_helped": "0 of 3",
   "fisher_two_sided": 0.1,
   "fisher_one_sided": 0.05,
   "spearman": -0.933,
   "perm_p": 0.1
  }
 }
}